The Singularity’s
Impact on Business Leaders: A Scenario
How will technologically enhanced
individuals collaborate with “normal” employees? By Barton Kunstler
The “Human Singularity”
refers to the radical fusion of the human body with technology to achive
levels of mental acuity and physical ability that eclipse anything
humans have previously known. One critical social function that will be
affected by the singularity is leadership, a chief defining factor of a
society's values, relations, and objectives. Leaders will bear much of
the burden of social evolution when the “Enhanced
Singular Individuals” (ESIs) of the Singularity Era enter the
general population of “Norms” (those without technological
enhancements). The leaders of every organization and group will be
compelled to come to terms with the ESIs' advanced capabilities and the
tensions, ambitions, and alliances attendant upon them.
PDF Available.
In the second installment of our 2020 Visionaries series, we
look at the future of media and of spirituality in the next
decade and beyond. Cory
Ondrejka, co-founder of the online game Second Life
and former vice president for digital marketing for EMI
Music, and Andrew Keen,
Internet entrepreneur and outspoken critic of Web 2.0, paint
contrasting pictures of how the Internet will redefine
culture in the next 10 years. Roy Speckhardt of the American Humanist Association
and Buddhist abbess
Ayyā
Gotamī (the reverend Prem Suksawat) offer their views
on how spirituality, science, and the Internet may influence
one another in the decades ahead.—Patrick Tucker, senior
editor of THE FUTURIST magazine.
2020 Visionaries Part 1
Roadmap to the Electric Car Economy
By Michael Horn
By the middle of this century, the United States may have
completely transitioned from gasoline to electric vehicles,
or EVs. Its economy will then enjoy an EV-energy bonus,
somewhat like the peace bonus at the end of the Cold War,
but this one will result from saving half of the money that
U.S. consumers previously spent on oil imports to make
gasoline for all their cars.
PDF Available.
Smart People, Dumb
Decisions
By Michael J.
Mauboussin
If you ask people to offer adjectives that they associate with good decision
makers, words like “intelligent” and “smart” are generally at the top of the
list. Yet, history contains plenty of examples of smart people who made poor
decisions as the result of cognitive mistakes. These mistakes can have
horrific consequences, from the space shuttle Columbia disaster to the
scores of bank failures across the United States since the start of the 2007
recession. But faulty decision making is also avoidable. Every day, research
is offering new insights into the decision-making process. A science of
choice is emerging, and the good news is that everyone, from students to
stockbrokers, can learn how to make better decisions. PDF Available.
Global, Mobile, Virtual,
and Social: The College Campus of Tomorrow By John Dew
An educator and strategic planner outlines the
trends leading to a long-forecast future for colleges and universities:
Global standardization of education content and accreditation, greater
diversity in the student body, and more options for where, when, and how
learning takes place.
PDF Available.
VISIONS
Vertical Farming: An Idea
Whose Time Has Come Back By Cynthia G.
Wagner
The April 1985 issue of THE FUTURIST featured an
inspiring new book by New Alchemy Institute founders John and Nancy Jack
Todd, Bioshelters, Ocean Arks, City Farming: Ecology as the Basis of
Design (Sierra Club Books, 1984). The visionary seeds they planted then
are now coming into season.
BOOKS
Biotechnology’s Promise—and Risks
“Between now and 2025, the biosciences will likely become one of the most
important topics in our personal lives, at work, and in society,” assert
Paul J.H. Schoemaker and Joyce A. Schoemaker, a husband and wife team with
experience in the industry. Yet, their new book, Chips, Clones, and
Living Beyond 100, is not so much about the biosciences as it is about
the outside social, economic, and political factors that will likely impact
the industry and determine its commercial potential. The real question, as
far as the authors are concerned, is not how far the biosciences will take
us, but rather what will drive biotechnology forward.Review by Aaron M. Cohen
The Brain vs. the
Web
In his new book, Wired for Thought, entrepreneur Jeffrey M. Stibel
takes the shop-worn notion that the brain functions like a computer and
re-orders it into a more useful new idea. The computer is not a brain,
Stibel asserts, but the Internet could be.Review by Patrick Tucker
Is Industrial Civilization Doomed? It is the middle of the twenty-first century, and the only countries that can still afford to use fossil fuels are those that are producing them. Half those countries’ populations — and 90% of the populations of the non-fossil-fuel-producing countries — labor at subsistence agriculture. Most of the rest eke out livings in factories converting salvaged materials with hand tools. Public health has collapsed, literacy rates are in steady freefall, and poverty and hunger are everywhere. Dozens of nations are mired in civil war, and populations are migrating in hordes, some to flee rising sea levels and encroaching droughts.
Review by Rick Docksai
Plus
Books in Brief By Rick Docksai Brain
Sense,
Change Design,
The Ecotechnic Future,
Fight for the Bay,
How to Survive the End of the World As We Know It,
Making the Invisible Visible,
The Smart Growth Manual,
Upstarts,
The Viking in the Wheat Field
From
January-February 2010
Stewart Brand’s
Environmental Heresies
Futurist and ecologist Stewart Brand believes that the Green movement must
move swiftly and decisively to embrace technological solutions to climate
change—several of which many leading environmentalists have spent their
careers campaigning against—including nuclear energy, genetic modification,
mass urbanization, and geoengineering.
Review by Aaron Cohen.
Collecting Wisdom
about the Future
In October 2008, major U.S. financial institutions crashed, and economies
around the world went into recession. In March 2009, an asteroid passed
within 77,000 kilometers of Earth; had it made impact, it would have
obliterated all life within an 800-square-kilometer area.What do these two
events have in common? According to Millennium Project scholars Jerome C.
Glenn, Theodore J. Gordon, and Elizabeth Florescu in the 2009 State of the Future, both
were near-total surprises.
Review by Rick Docksai.
From November-December 2009 Scientific Breakthroughs Ahead! Young
scientists entering their fields today will grapple with perplexing
questions that their elders have left behind. What’s Next? Dispatches on
the Future of Science offers some of their answers. Editor
Max Brockman personally scouted out 18 of the most promising new researchers
and solicited original articles from them. The resulting compilation
promises to be “a representative who’s who of the coming generation of
scientists.”
Review by Rock Docksai.
From September-October
Opening Up the Shut-Down Learner
Four out of every 10 American students in elementary school today might give
up on learning well before graduation time, according to school psychologist
Richard Selznick. They will disconnect from teachers, tune out of class, and
simply “shut down” as students. In The Shut-Down Learner, Selznick tells
parents and teachers what they can do to re-engage them.
Review by Rick Docksai
Healing Habitats This fifth
book in Cliff Moughtin’s Urban Design series focuses on the design concepts
that will guide humanity to a more sustainable future, promote mental and
physical health, and create or provide a sense of community. Like the first
four volumes in the series, it speaks clearly and eloquently to
professionals working in the fields of urban planning and urban design.
Review by Aaron Cohen.
From July-August
Big
Ideas for Saving the Earth
Some
of the most thoughtful work on the topic of climate change appears in
Jamais Cascio’s new e-book, Hacking the Earth. Cascio is a Bay
Area futurist who worked with Global Business Network during the 1990s
and is currently a research affiliate at the Institute for the Future, a
global futures strategist at the Center for Responsible Nanotechnology,
and a fellow at the Institute for Ethics and Emerging Technologies.
Review by Bob Olson
How
Evolution Is Evolving
Mainstream science maintains that humans stopped evolving about 50,000
years ago. Civilization put an end to process. Therefore, the human of
the pre-modern era is the human of today and will be the human tomorrow,
right? Not so fast, say scientists Gregory Cochran and Henry Harpending.
In The 10,000 Year Explosion, they argue that humankind is
evolving even faster in the modern age. We developed new genetic traits
as recently as the Middle Ages. The Ashkenazi (or European) Jews, for
instance, don’t just seem smarter; they demonstrate a genetic
predisposition toward higher intelligence.By Patrick Tucker
From May-June
Increasing Mental Fitness
In
Spark: The
Revolutionary New Science of Exercise and the Brain,
HarvardMedical
School psychiatrist JohnRatey
gives the majority of Americansand
the 60% of the world’s
people who do not exercise enoughfor
good health even more reason toget
off their duffs and start moving.Ratey
effectively summarizes recent
research and case histories to showthat
exercise is good for you mentallyas
well as physically — a regular
exercise program can literally heal a
troubled mind. Review by Kenneth W. Harris
From March-April 2009 Too Free for Our Own Good?
In a free market, it’s much too easy to make choices that endanger our
health and wealth, observes Peter A. Ubel, a primary-care physician, in
Free Market Madness. In a free market, we are free to overeat, smoke,
drink excessively, ruin our credit, and not save enough for retirement, and
it’s much to easy for us to make choices that endanger both our health and
wealth.
Review by Rick Docksai.
Imagining an American Utopia
If ever a book warranted a place by the bedside of the next president of the
United States (and his Cabinet appointees), Herbert J. Gans’s “utopian
narrative” Imagining America in 2033 is it. Likewise, any futurist
eager to learn how the American presidents from now through 2033 might craft
a remarkably finer country (and thereby, a much better world) have an
indispensable primer here. Written in the form of an engaging novel, rather
than a stuffy academic treatise, the book lightly instructs in policy
studies, pragmatic reforms, and the gritty give-and-take of tomorrow's White
House realities.
Review by Arthur Shostak
From January-February Hope in the State of the Future The Millennium
Project of the World Federation of United Nations Associations has
released a State of the Future report every year since 1996. This latest
edition draws upon all 12 predecessors and incorporates findings from
229 new contributing futurists, business planners, and scientists.
Review by Rick Docksai.
The
Emergence of a Global Generation Maverick
pollster John Zogby explains why the new American Dream is better than the old one.
Review by Aaron Cohen.
FUTURIST UPDATE, FEBRUARY 2010 Teenaged activists
build a more-inclusive future. … State legislatures deal with competing
budget demands. … European Union advised to seek marriage counseling. …
These stories, plus news for the futurist community, “click” of the
month, and more in the latest issue of
FUTURIST UPDATE
Solutions for a Better Future
This year, as the mainstream media focused on the scandals of the day,
THE FUTURIST looked at potential “fixes” to big problems awaiting
today’s and tomorrow’s young people. Generous members of the World
Future Society make that happen. We’ve highlighted, briefly, how the
issue will develop in the years ahead, and we discuss uncommon solutions
featured in THE FUTURIST magazine.
FUTURIST UPDATE, JANUARY 2010 Gaming strategies for better
work performance…. Diabetes cases predicted to double in 20 years.…
Millennial generation’s proposals for fiscal soundness…. These stories, plus
Futurist’s Reading List, Click of the Month, and more, in the 10th
Anniversary issue of Futurist Update.
The Singularity,
Explored We talk to
Michael Vassar of the Singularity Institute about the upcoming
summit, the Singularity, and the technological breakthroughs of tomorrow.
Futurist
Update for December Why Kilimanjaro may be
snowless within 20 years. … Why HIV/AIDS is hitting young women hardest. …
Why cute is the new cool. … These stories and more in the December 2009
issue of Futurist Update.
November 2009 Futurist Update Materialism in the
Nonmaterial World
Fire-Resistant Building Material
Doctors’ Attitudes May Affect Obese Patients’ Health
Click of the Month: Trends Map
News for the Futurist Community
What’s Hot @WFS.org: Futurist of the Year Nominations
Early Spring Warning: Blooms Too Soon?
Artificial Intelligence Aids Diagnosis
Denmark Offers Educational “Green” Vacations
Click of the Month: Futurity
News for the Futurist Community
What's Hot @WFS.ORG
SEPTEMBER 2009 Futurist Update
Healthy Sex Life Improves Career Prospects
Online Textbook Lightens Backpacks
Life Expectancy Increases in U.S.
Click of the Month: Live Ethical Quote
News for the Futurist Community
What's Hot @WFS.ORG: Back from the Futur
AUGUST 2009 Futurist Update
Skills Gap Is Widening
The End May Be Near for Big Tobacco
The Millennium Project’s Latest Projects
Click of the Month: The World Mind Network
News for the Futurist Community
What's Hot @WFS.ORG: Back from the Future
July 2009 Futurist Update Making Disasters Less
Disastrous
Earth Science Literacy
Rapid Virus Detection
Click of the Month: Engineer Your Life
News for the Futurist Community
What's Hot @WFS.ORG
June 2009 Futurist Update Top 10 Long-Term
Challenges
Avatars That Look Like Us
Bright Prospects for Blue-Collar Careers
Living Life with Purpose
Click of the Month: Chicago 2016
What’s Hot @WFS.ORG
May Futurist Update
How we can become more secure through cooperation…. How we can better
predict freight traffic (and why it matters)…. How you can prepare for a
sudden medical emergency—yours or that of a loved one. These stories and
more in the May 2009 Futurist Update.
Preparing
for Pandemic What does flu pandemic
look like? In 2006 planers and strategists were asking this same question,
but the strain in question was H5N1, and the initial carriers were birds
rather than pigs. The guidelines proposed by the World Health Organization
at that time still provide a reliable picture of what government response to
a pandemic might entail.
APRIL 2009 Futurist Update Putting Professors
Back in the Classroom
Top Cities with Energy-Efficient Buildings
Reining in Local Government
Click of the Month: Economic Turning Point
News for the Futurist Community
What’s Hot @WFS.ORG
MARCH 2009 FUTURIST UPDATE Economic Rebound Forecast for 2010
Long-Term Benefits of Recession-Proofing Strategies
Alaska Youth Success Stories
Antarctica's Accelerated Warming
Click of the Month: TeacherTube
News for the Futurist Community
FEBRUARY 2009 FUTURIST UPDATE Half of Planet May Face
Food Crisis
Yardstick for Measuring Health
Darwin and Lincoln Bicentennials
Click of the Month: International Year of Astronomy 2009
News for the Futurist Community
JANUARY 2009 FUTURIST UPDATE Decarbonizing
Energy
Workplace Trend Watcher’s Advice
Oceanic “Lab on a Chip”
Cracking Down on Scientific Fraud
Click of the Month: eHow
Editor's Query: Wild Cards
FUTURE TV
Our searches for
extraterrestrial intelligence, sustainable energy solutions, and love will
all get a boost in the decade ahead. This video Illustrates the top 10
forecasts from the World Future Society's annual Outlook report.
At the World Future
Society's 2009 conference, bioethicist Arthur L. Caplan explains that the
costs of human enhancement and longevity technologies should be weighed
against the costs of unhealthy people. "Unfairness" of access to these
technologies should also not be an argument against promoting their
development, says Caplan.
At the World Future Society 2009 conference, bioethicist Arthur L. Caplan
explains that eliminating the right to privacy carried in Roe v. Wade could
potentially allow government to mandate the use "designer baby"
technologies.
FUTURIST senior editor Patrick Tucker tells CBS
correspondent Tracy Smith why the future is "okay" without flying cars.
Don
Tapscott address WorldFuture
2009
Don Tapscott, author
of Grown Up Digital, opens WorldFuture 2009 conference July 17, 2009,
describing how the Net Generation uses media.
Workplace futurist John A. Challenger, speaking at WorldFuture 2009, noted
that many of our concerns today, such as labor shortages, immigration,
retirement, and globalization, are not new trends, but the recession has put
them in a new context.
Don
Tapscott, author of Grown Up Digital, opens WorldFuture 2009 conference July
17, 2009, describing how the Net Generation uses media.
World Future Society
board member Jay McIntosh shares why he's excited about attending the 2009
annual meeting, to be held July 17-19 in Chicago, and what you can expect
once you're there.
THE
FUTURIST magazine's Top Ten Forecasts for 2009 and
Beyond.
Each year since
1985, the editors of
THE FUTURIST have
selected the most thought-provoking ideas and forecasts
appearing in the magazine to go into our annual Outlook
report. Over the years, Outlook has spotlighted the
emergence of such epochal developments as the Internet,
virtual reality, and the end of the Cold War. Here are
the editors' top 10 forecasts from
Outlook 2009.
TOP TEN
FORECASTS for 2008 and Beyonddd
Each year since 1985, the editors of
THE
FUTURIST have selected the most thought-provoking ideas and forecasts
appearing in the magazineto go into our annual Outlook report.
Watch
the video on Youtube. Attn: Teachers and
instructors:
WMV or MOV Quicktime versions available for presentations upon
request.
The World Is Not Flat In the opening plenary
session of the World Future Society's 2008 annual meeting,
Edie Weiner, president of Weiner, Edrich, Brown, Inc.,
takes on the
idea that "the world is flat".
Information Vs. Hate
Nate Garvis (VP, Target) describes the
impact of the Technology Effect on the rise of uncivil discourse and the
"outrage industry" as well as its more positive influence in creating
communities of disparate people around the globe. Excerpted from the
World Future Society's 2007 conference. Note, Mr. Garvis's comments were
made as an individual and not as a representative of Target.
Watch the Video on YouTube.
TOP TEN FORECASTS for 2008 and Beyond
Each
year since 1985, the editors of
THE FUTURIST
have selected the most thought-provoking ideas and forecasts
appearing in the magazine to go into our annual Outlook
report.Watch
the video on Youtube. . Blind Insight - Nat Irvin II at
WorldFuture 2007
In this WFS exclusive, business professor Nat Irvin II (University of
Louisville) tells a personal story about his partial blindness and his
insights as a futurist at the World Future Society's 2007 conference.
Watch here. Irvin will chair the
Society's 2008 conference in
Washington, D.C.
Personalized Medicine: Gregory
Stock at WorldFuture2007: UCLA researcher Gregory Stock looks at
the future of genomics and the cures of tomorrow.
Watch here.
"Drugs or Love? Helen Fisher at
WorldFuture 2007":
Helen Fisher discusses the future of sex,
love, and relationships at the World Future Society's conference in
Minneapolis.
Watch now.
The Top Ten Forecasts from
Outlook 2007-- a short film by C. Wagner. Watch the video now on
YouTube.
Attn: Teachers and instructors:
WMV or MOV Quicktime versions available for presentations upon
request.
The Singularity’s
Impact on Business Leaders: A Scenario